Tuesday, July 25, 2006

NY Times lists competitive House races

The New York Times has put up an interactive map breaking down the 2006 election races.

They show CD19, CD20, CD24, CD25 and CD29 being competitive, with Mike Arcuri's race in CD24 being a toss-up.

What do you think, are those the right races? What are our best opportunities this election?

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Daniel Millstone said...

How does the NY Times in this map (or the National Journal in the survey just below) decide which races are "leaning republican" "leaning democratic" or "toss-up"?

You may notice that the poll you publish about the Ct-5 (Nancy Johnson vs. Chris Murphy) suggests that that race is much closer than the NY Times map labels it.

I have never seen these classifications linked to any polling data, so how are they making those calls?

Steve Perez said...

Good point. I think it's less that what any of these rankings say is definitive and more that the races they highlight will get more attention.

Momentum feeds itself, so if people are hearing that a race is competitive then they'll think of it as being more competitive.

Bob Aubin said...

Exactly, that is why we need to work harder to get attention in NY23. The demographics and 2004 Presidential vote show this CD should be very competitive. We are starting a big online push, and the local DFA is working on house parties and visability... this district is so HUGE land area wise though... Regardless we will not give up. I know we can win this.

I want to thank the Working Families Party again for your endorsement, you have given us the first real big push that we really needed to get started.

I am planning a House Party for your Take Back Congress Fund on August 18th. Even though we have very limited resources and a tough fight here by donating to your fund we help the cause we are all working toward.

Bob Aubin said...

Check out this Daily Kos post by Bob Johnson. He is a real leader of the kind we desperately need in Congress right now.

la la la I can't hear you said...

I think the 20th is a big toss up. Sweeney is digging deeper and deeper himself into a nightmare of a campaign.

One day he calls his challenger a pretty face, then he claims he knows nothing about her. Then his campaign issues a negative press release and he denies having sent it.

Then he sends out a mailer with blatant lies in it.

Today the papers are panning his new Boat Tax Give away bill which he tried to tell people that he thought of when the Ethan Allen accident happened in the district. Only it turns out that the special interest boat builders started giving money to him over a year before the accident. The special interest supports Sweeney's bill and has given more cash to Sweeney than anyone else in congress.

And then add on his ethics issues.

With Kirsten Gillibrand, a professional and poised candidate out there, the voters here are going to drop Sweeney.

People forget that Sweeney's never had much of a challenge. And when he first ran, some of the most Republican counties (Washington and Warren) went to the Democratic Challenger.