Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Election roundup for early August

Even over the last week, the chorus of pundits predicting that Democrats will take back Congress has grown.

From the Cook Report:
"The political climate will be extremely hostile to Republican candidates. . . . All of the traditional diagnostic indicators in major national polls taken in the past 10 days show numbers consistent with an electoral rout. . . . In a very large tidal-wave election, as this one appears to be, it would not be unusual to see all toss-ups go to one party, along with a few out of the leaning column as well. Republicans might lose their House majority just in the seats in which they are behind or in which their edge is within a poll's margin of error."
From Larry Sabato:
"Indicators are now suggesting that Republicans are headed for their most serious midterm losses in decades. . . . To be certain, the 2006 midterm election cycle promises to feature the most strongly anti-incumbent mood since 1994 . . . . At this stage, the Crystal Ball is shifting its outlook from a Democratic gain of 6-8 to a Democratic gain of 12-15 seats in the House."
From the Wall Street Journal:
"'It is likely that Republicans lose control of the House,' says Bernadette Budde of Business-Industry Political Action Committee. The biggest danger for Republicans: 'clumps' of defeats in states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York, submerging incumbents who don't now appear vulnerable."
From the Washington Post (poll results here):
"Most Americans describe themselves as being in an anti-incumbent mood heading into this fall's midterm congressional elections, and the percentage of people who approve of their own representative's performance is at the lowest level since 1994, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll."
New York is the swing state, with as many competitive House races as any other state in the nation. And Mike Arcuri's race in CD24 is shaping up to be the closest of the bunch.

From Roll Call (no link):
"With Boehlert out of the picture, Democrats are upbeat about their chances, citing a strong nominee and a favorable environment, including likely November landslides for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and gubernatorial hopeful Eliot Spitzer . . . Arcuri, who will run on the Democratic, Working Families and Independence party lines, presents himself as a moderate who is 'similar to Boehlert.' Like the retiring Republican, he opposes Bush's position on federal funding of stem-cell research, is pro-choice, favors increasing the minimum wage and opposes a ban on gay marriage. . . . If the national political environment were completely neutral, the GOP almost certainly would retain the seat. And Arcuri would have an almost impossible task against Boehlert, if he were seeking another term. But the open seat and the possible Democratic surge in the state and nationally make this a very competitive race. Meier still has an edge, so a Democratic win there definitely would mean GOP control of the House is in deep trouble."
I'll wrap it up with another blurb about our work to Take Back Congress, this one from Crain's Insider (no link):
"Paris Hilton has entered New York politics. A Working Families Party radio ad supporting Democratic congressional hopeful Mike Arcuri blasts a Republican bill in the House that ties a minimum wage hike to a cut in the estate tax, saying the provision is for 'heiresses like Paris Hilton.' Arcuri's opponent, state Sen. Ray Meier, has said he supports the bill. The two are battling to succeed Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-New Hartford, who is retiring. The Cook Political Report calls it the state's most competitive House race but rates Meier a slight favorite."
It's going to be a tough fight, but this is our year. Together, we'll win. You can get involved by making calls to support Mike Arcuri (email me to volunteer), making a donation so we have the money we need, and making sure you're on our email list.

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