Monday, August 21, 2006

Election roundup for mid-August

In the newest National Journal ranking of competitive House races, the Arcuri race in CD24 has moved up to #11 from #16, the Gillibrand race in CD20 has moved up to #24, and the Mejias race in CD3 has been added to the list. That means - once again - that New York is the swing state, with more competitive House races than any other state in the country. If we're going to take back the House, we need to win here in New York.

And we can win. Polling on a generic House ballot continues to show Republican candidates decidedly behind as George Bush's unpopularity drags his Congressional allies down with him. Larry Sabato is now predicting that House Republicans will lose 12-15 seats - and the momentum is on our side.

The fundraising numbers bear this out. This quote is from a Washington Post article on the success challengers are having in running for Republican-held seats:
"Of this year's 27 most vulnerable incumbents, 14 face challengers who have raised at least $1 million, according to FEC reports. At this point in 2004, no Democratic challenger had raised $1 million. What's more, all but one of the 27 Democratic challengers has raised at least $400,000 -- a figure that many election experts consider a minimum price of entry for candidates hoping to mount a credible campaign. Taking into account all House races, 36 Democratic challengers have cleared the $400,000 threshold.
For political finance experts, the data are striking because they show that the usual fundraising advantage of incumbents -- who tend to have more access to special-interest money -- is durable but not impervious to competing trends. This year, these include a highly motivated base of Democratic activists and low approval ratings for President Bush and the Republican leadership in Congress."
You can see more FEC numbers online.

But we haven't won yet. You can expect to see a lot of Karl Rove-style attacks as embattled Republican candidates open up a barrage of negative attacks and say anything to smear their opponents.

It's going to be a hard fight, but working together we can do it. Let's Take Back Congress - volunteer or donate

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