Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Sweeney reelect below 50%

A Sienna Poll in New York's 20th District (crosstabs here) shows incumbent John Sweeney's reelect number down to 48%. An incumbent with a reelect number (that's the percentage of people polled who think he should be reelected) below 50% is in trouble.

The poll shows the race at Sweeney 53% to Gillibrand 34%. That's a marked improvement for Gillibrand over a June poll that had her at 27%, while Sweeney's standing still (he was at 51%).

Gillibrand leads among Democrats 67% to 23%. Sweeney leads among Republicans 73% to 13% and he currently leads among independents 49% to 37%.

The challenge is to reach more people with Kirsten Gillibrand's positive message of change and increase her name recognition. As more people get to know Kirsten Gillibrand, the trend we're already seeing in the polling will increase and her support will grow. A recent MSNBC article lays out some of the opportunities and challenges in this race. The article also talks about Sweeney's worries in the race - particularly his fear that his blind loyalty to George Bush will be exposed. We need to take this chance and run with it.

I'm not going to kid anyone: there's a lot of work to do here. These races aren't going to fall into our laps, we're going to have to work to win them. But Sweeney's low reelect number shows that if we raise the money and do the hard work to get our message out then we can win.

Now is the time to get involved - volunteer or donate!

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1 comment:

Albany Lawyer said...

Your readers might be interested in Sweeney's challenge to Libertarian Eric Sundwall's petitions. Read more about it on Sundwall's blog: http://www.sundwall4congress.org/weblog/2006/09/gops_top_gun_vs_gops_own_candi.html#more

We've got one press release on prleap.com, and another one will be out on 9/3/06.

Warren Redlich
http://www.wredlich.com