NY-26: A Referendum on Trade Tightens

The WFP has had its eye on the 26th congressional district for a while. Jack Davis did better than anyone expected in 2004 against GOP incumbent (and NRCC chair) Tom Reynolds.

Davis is running again, and the first public polling shows the race as a statistical tie. MyDD picks up the numbers from the Survey USA/WGRZ IVR* survey:

The race for the congressional seat in New York's 26th Congressional district between Congressman Tom Reynolds and businessman Jack Davis is neck and neck according to new scientific polling information.

The survey was commissioned by Channel 2 News and was completed by Survey USA. It breaks down as the following:

45% Tom Reynolds (R)
43% Jack Davis (D)
8% Christine Murphy (G)
4% Undecided

Murphy, the Green candidate is now off the ballot, so query where her support goes.... Hmmm... left-leaning voters looking for an alternative to the Democratic Party.

What is this race about? We had the opportunity to observe some focus groups in the Buffalo suburbs recently, and the emotion around the loss of jobs due to unfair trade is visceral.

In fact, when you think about it, it's hard to see how Jack Davis could lose an election that clearly become a referendum on trade. But anything's possible.

Mike Arcuri's effort in the 24th district remains the WFP's top congressional priority, with a substantial independent expenditure directed at unaffiliated voters and independent-minded Republicans. But Jack Davis would clearly benefit from a little WFP oomph too.

* IVR = Interactive Voice Recording -- this is an automated touch-tone survey, a methodology that some question and others find to be sometimes more reliable than human telephone interviewing.

Technorati tags: Working Families Party | 2006 Election | Take Back the House | Vote Row E | NY26