Sunday, October 08, 2006

Davis leads Reynolds by 15 points

A Zogby International poll for the Buffalo News has Jack Davis 15 points ahead of incumbent Rep. Tom Reynolds. Davis was already running a strong race against Reynolds in New York's 26th District, holding Reynolds accountable for trade agreements that have left the district hemorrhaging jobs.

But then the Mark Foley scandal broke. Now we know that Tom Reynolds knew about the emails Mark Foley sent to underage pages, and that Reynolds' Chief of Staff had tried to cover up the scandal and had told Republican higher-ups about Foley years ago.

To most of us, Reynolds' role in the scandal is inexcusable. Reynolds' first response was to cover everything up, and then to hide behind kids instead of coming clean. Now he's trying to fast-talk his way out of trouble, and when that doesn't work it's safe to expect Reynolds to start sliming Jack Davis with negative attacks. Since Reynolds is the Chair of the RNCC, he'll have a ton of money to sink into negative ads.

So now both Davis' Congressional race in NY-26 and Mike Arcuri's race in NY-24 are rated "toss up" by the pundits, including the New York Times and the Cook Report (pdf). At least three more New York Congressional races are close, with underdog upsets looming. How big will the Democratic surge in New York be this year? That's up to us.

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