From the CQ article:
"And nowhere is that more true than in New York's 26th District, where the re-election prospects of four-term Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds - head of the Republicans' national House campaign organization - have seen a stunning reversal of fortune. The controversy over Reynolds' handling of information about Foley's activities has prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to Leans Democratic from Leans Republican.In case you're curious, the other Republican-held seats that CQ rates as "Leans Democratic" are Mark Foley's and Tom DeLay's. Tom Reynolds and Tom DeLay, two incumbents who would do anything to win elections.
. . .
The Leans Democratic rating does not mean that Reynolds definitely will lose on Nov. 7: His past popularity, strong fundraising advantage and the Republican lean in his upstate New York district gives him at least a chance of reversing the tide running strongly against him.
But all of the momentum appears on the side of the Democratic nominee, factory owner Jack Davis, who had been running a vigorous underdog campaign even before the Foley scandal erupted.
The contest is a rematch of the 2004 race in which Davis held Reynolds to an unexpectedly close 56 percent to 44 percent edge. Now, three separate polls since late last week showed Reynolds trails Davis by significant margins.
. . .
Reynolds - who has defended himself by saying that the e-mails in question were not the sexually explicit ones to other young men that were later revealed - says he mentioned the matter to the office of House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois, a matter of serious dispute since the scandal broke.
This has led many critics to demand to know why Reynolds didn't think the matter required a more thorough investigation, and whether he would not have been much more aggressive if - in his role as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee - the lawmaker making inappropriate contacts with pages had been a Democrat rather than a Republican."
Turning to the other New York races, Mike Arcuri's race in New York's 24th District is rated "No Clear Favorite", John Hall (NY-19) and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) are rated "Leans Republican", and David Mejias (NY-3), Dan Maffei (NY-25) and Eric Massa (NY-29) are rated "Republican Favored".
Seven seats in play with four weeks to go, and I think the races are closer than those rankings show.
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Technorati tags: Working Families Party | 2006 Election | Take Back the House | Vote Row E | NY24 | Mike Arcuri | NY26 | Davis | Reynolds